Once again, the Middle East is at war. Hamas attacked, Israel responded, and months (if not years) of retaliations are ahead. This back-and-forth fighting with Hamas has become a well-choreographed dance. Hamas leads with expendible soldiers and low-tech rockets. Israel follows with a swift, high-tech response. It looks a lot like their last dance, with perhaps a bit more professional coaching. When the dance is over, both sides take a bow and swear revenge. Not too long after, the dance begins again

According to both the Palestinians and the Israelis smaller aggressions have occured over the last couple of year, on both sides, but are ignored or underreported by the Western press. Both sides can claim provocations that have caused escalation into a full war. Both sides also claim that the other side has repeatedly used real and imagined incidents in previous escalations.

This conflict has a long and bloody history with each side alternately playing the hero, the villain, and the victim. Hamas identifies itself as freedom fighters who are liberating their home from an an oppresive occupying power. Justified by the day-to-day indignities of second-class citizenship in an occupied land, Hamas feels justified in spilling as much blood as needed and has repeatedly pledged itself to the destruction of Israel.

Isreal was born as the homeland of the Jews after fleeing from the Nazi death camps of WWII. They identify as an underdog who miraculously survived the Holocaust, heroically struggled against powerful neighboring nations, and finally returned to their ancestral home. Israel has endured terrorist attacks from Hamas since it’s creation in 1987, and similar attacks by Hamas’ predecessor (the PLO) since it was created in 1964.

Both sides have believe that God personally gave this land to them and them alone. That beleif has been cemented in place with the spilled blood of all parties across two different centuries. When all parties are justified by God and Blood, that’s pretty much the definition of an intractable conflict. However, Israel has said that this time will be different. And I believe them.

The choices that Hamas made in starting this particular phase of the conflict don’t make any sense to the West. If this attack was done to gain support, it failed. Perhaps Hamas’ attack was far more successful than they planned? They were certainly more successful than Israel assumed they would be.

Attacking a music festival, and killing or kidnapping over 1,000 of the 3,500 attendees was a very bad move. Virtually every nation… in Europe, across Asia, and both Russia and China… is now demanding an accounting for every dead or missing citizen. And lets remember, at a music festival everyone has a camera and is consatntly recording events. Every that happened at the festival… from before anyone ralized that those “specks” in the skies were hang-gliding terrorists until the last tourist was killed…. is now premanently documented and has ben shared around the world.

While killing more than a thousand Israeli’s can never be justified, some will say there were reaons, or look at the history. But killing 100 or more foreig tourists? This was a music condert, not a military training camp. And it wasn’t bombs, it was the individual killing… and apparently rape and other attrocities… of individually selected victims. In the end, yes, dead is dead. But there is War and then there are War Crimes. Opinions will differ, based on viewsthat were establised many years ago, but one thing is sure. Palestinian civilians can expect the fewest and weakest voices of support when Israel’s plan for revenge is in full stride.

Part of the motivation for the attack was undoubtedly the success of Ukraine in liberating territory from Russia’s occupation. If so, Hamas failed (catestrophically) to learn from Zelensky’s media-savvy leadership. Killing tourists is not how you become the world’s hero. Israel’s reaction? In the past, no matter how violent the reprisal, Israel took care to frame their actions as the need for security. Now, we hear about the need for revenge. Let’s break this down.

International Cooperation: War is expensive, in every possible way. The US and Europe are already drawing up plans to support Israel. Just a week ago, Washington was battling over how to support Ukraine. Similar political battles were occuring in Europe. These two conflicts will now compete for dollars and weapons. But there is a simple solution, especially for the US. Put together a joint bill to fund both conflicts, making most political factions ready to sign on. ESPECIALLY 3 weeks before a U.S. election.

Deep Revenge: With at least 100 tourists from around the world dead, kidnapped, or missing, no nation that matters will stand on the side of Hamas. Even China wants an accounting for its five dead or missing citizens. Nations that don’t beat the drums of war will certainly turn a blind eye to whatever happens to Palestinians. No nation will volunteer to take in any refugees until well after Israel is satisfied.

Darker Israel: Over the last 75 years Israel has become increasingly comfortable with playing an ever darker role in the conflict. It sounds like the goal is to depopulate the Ghaza strip.

Canceled Funds: On the threshold of receiving $6 billion in frozen oil revenues, expect a return to the deep freeze. Most Western nations assume that the drone swarm, that took down Israeli radar and communications was done with Iranian drones and probably technical support. Even if it is found that Iran did nothing on the day of the attack, there is such a strong connection between Iran and Hamas that unless Iran tipped off the US in advance (Hint… they didn’t) that money is off the table.

More Drones: Hamas sent a lot of soldiers, rockets, and drones into a small area and overwhelmed defenses. Swarm attacks of one kind or another have been part of war since before the time of the Roman Empire. Expect drone swarm attacks FROM Israel, drone swarm PATROLS to defend Israel, and a new generation of active PATROL-ATTACK DRONES in the air and roving the land across Gaza, 24 x 7. Fixed defenses are too easy overwhelmed, in too many ways.

No Hiding: Hamas’ strategy has been… shoot at Israel and then hide the guns and missiles by residential neighborhoods, schools, and hospitals, using civilians as human shields. Israel has advanced weapons to reduce casualties, but civilians will always pay some price. That strategy is at an end. In Ukraine, drones are operated from miles away, they fly to Russian positions, and they can drop a grenade on a single soldier. If they dopn’t already exist, expect Israel to produce large numbers (thousads) of advanced patrol drones. They will constantly partol the air and the ground around Gaza. If there are any signs of a planned or active attack, patrol drones will switth to a killing mode and attack anything their AI and facial recognition software says ight be a threat.

Kill Command: Drones are becoming more intellegent, and deadly. However, American and European drones do not (officially?) have the ability to kill without explicit human approval. A drone on a long mission that loses contact with it’s home base, it can still autonomously reach it’s target. But it cannot attack without a human being pulling a remote trigger. If Isreali drones do not given complete autonomy, expect them to get a lot closer to pulling their own triggers. The next time an attack is building, Israel won’t have a long approval process to start shooting… especially, if armed drones are already in the area.

Darker Israel: Over the last 75 years Israel has become increasingly comfortable with playing an ever darker role in the conflict. Israel’s immediate goal is to free hostages, punish Hamas, and prevent a similar attack from ever happening again. In the longer term? They will “Pacify” the Gaza Strip. Which may include capturing or killing most of Hamas, if not significantly depopulating Gaza.

Palestinian Civilians?: They’re going to suffer. A lot. While few would have joined in on the killing if they could, many see Hamas as their authentic representatives. Not all Palestinians think that these attacks are justified, but about half of those surveyed support the action of Hamas. The lack of outrage at Hamas by the average Palestinian is not going to be well recieved in the coming weeks. And is going to justify the lack of outrage by previously sympathetic Isrealis. With so much blood already spilled, voices that might matter, that might call for peace, will not little to say.

It’s not a pretty picture, and it’s not likely to get worse before it gets better. Still, there may be a shred of hope. For the last 20 years an Arab Peace Initiative has been making the rounds, and was signed by every Arab nation in the Middle East. But Israel and the US have not endorsed the initiative. More recently, the Crown Prince of Suadi Arabia has personal asking world leaders to consider an alternative… normalization. If Isreal and the rest of the nations in the area can have normal diplomatic relations, then… perhaps an Israel that is not continually threatened by its neighbors just might be willing to deal with problems inside it’s borders. It’s not much, but it might be a start of future negotiations.

What do you think? What do you see as the future of the Middle East? If true peace is not possible, do you thing that eveyone live together with a minimum of violence?