When Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, he got what he wanted Little has gone the way that Putin wanted since his invasion of Ukraine, at little personal cost. Inside Russia, Putin gained even more power. By the time world leaders figured out how they would respond, Russian troops were already on their way back home. There would be sanctions and financial repercussions, but that was all in the future. Putin was, at least for a time, a happy man.

The sequel invasion in 2022 was not the successful sequel that Putin (and Russia) expected. Since the new invasion of Ukraine, it’s been nothing but bad news for Russia. Front Page bad news. A lot of what we’re seeing is not due to events in August, rather August events are a result of things that happened over the last couple of years… or longer. These predictable events point the way to a HUGE problem for Putin in September. Let’s dive right in!

The War in Ukraine has been Putin’s Groundhog Day. The same bad news over and over again. Unacceptable loss of tanks and other vehicles… all publically blown up (with videos on the internet). There are even collaboration sites to crowdsource verification of destroyed Russian tanks and to identify faked Russian claims of victory.

The Russian Air Force is afraid to patrol the air space over Ukraine due to a legitimate fear of being blown out of the air by American and European missile defenses. Pilots are happy to stay safely inside Russian airspace, and military leaders have made protecting pilots their highest priority. Mind you, this is not because Russian generals care for their pilots. Rather, generals who lose aircraft are quickly removed… from the battlefield or from life itself. Order to military leaders seems to be that it’s OK for troops to die… tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are dead or have deserted… they just need to do it quietly. And far away from any cameras.

Russia’s sizable military budget seems to have produced very little in the decade since the last invasion of Ukraine. Russia has put obsolete, broken, and incomplete equipment into the field. There are rumors and evidence that Putin has offset a decade of sanctions with escalating internal corruption, Essentially, it if wasn’t nailed down, Putin’s elite circle already stole it. If it was nailed down, Russian elites have been grabbing crowbars to pry it loose and sell it.

How bad it is in Russia? They are running out of weapons and ammo. Russia is relying on drones from Iran and Turkey to replace their missiles. These are nations that once depended on Russia for the weapons they used for their own defense. This is a very, very humiliating time for Putin. And it puts out a terrible message about the world’s #2 weapons dealer. OK. I take back what I said. If Russia had any crowbars left, they were stolen a long time ago.

And then there’s Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a tragic airline accident. Coincidentally, he was traveling with other heads of the Wagner Group. Remember the Wagner group? The one that rebelled against Putin? With the elimination of the Wagner Group, the rest of the Russian Military gained power. But without the Wagner Group, Putin loses Russia’s most effective terror weapons and his most experienced troops. If the remaining Russian military leaders do not suddenly become more effective, they too may get a first-class ticket on Putin Airlines.

This terrible August also marks the beginning of the end for Russia’s space industry. Once a close competitor of the US, Russia kept pace with and occasionally beat the US space program. After the second crash of the American space shuttle, even the mighty NASA flew astronauts on Russian rockets to the International Space Station. But in August, Russia’s first return to the moon in nearly 50 years, the LUNA-25 moon probe, went out of control and crashed.

Falling from the savior of NASA to an also-ran in space is indescribably humiliating for Russia and Putin. And yet, as inconceivable as it may sound, it gets even worse. Two days after Russia crashed its space probe, India’s bargain-basement Chandrayaan-3 lander, successfully landed on the moon. And then it deployed its lunar rover. Putin’s continuing humiliation was felt by every Russian.

Without access to Western technology, especially microchips, Russia’s space industry may never recover. Add to that an inevitable rise in the risk factor for using a Russian rocket; uninsurable rockets are not very desirable when you want to put a $100 million satellite into orbit. Of course, India will capitalize on the success of their moon landing with aggressive poaching of Russia’s client list.

What a terrible August. Can Russia hope for a better September? No, it can’t. In fact, the next major humiliation for Russia will take place in London, starting on September 12th. DSEI, Defence & Security Equipment International, is one of the world’s largest exhibitions of military weapons. It is where the world’s most advanced killing technology is exhibited and (hopefully) purchased.

With Russia’s recent performance on land, sea, air, and space… Russia can expect declining weapon sales in 2023. Russia is courting North Korea to get desperately needed ammunition. Are their customers watching this unfolding story? How can any potential customer believe that Russia will deliver on any new orders when Russia can’t even meet its own needs?

Winter will be here soon. While Ukraine may not be able to kick out Russia before cold weather sets in, there may be more ways to humiliate Putin than just military victories over Russia. If August is a good example, then Putin can expect even more bad news before the year is out! What do you think? Can Putin turn around the war in Ukraine? Or is Russia fated to fade away as an international power?