Donald Trump has always thrived on transactional, single-issue deals. That style worked for him in real estate, where every project is neatly defined and someone walks away with a profit. But American economics, diplomacy, and politics are a bit more complex than selling condos. America’s simplest trade policies require more planning than any Trump business deal. Yet Trump insists that his tariffs will “Make America Great Again.”

But what does that actually mean? Will tariffs make corporations richer? Create better-paying jobs for American workers? Pay off the national debt? Or is “greatness” just another Trump branding exercise?

When we unpack Trump’s version of MAGA, it promises everything at once: more U.S. manufacturing, foreign factories repatriated, agricultural dominance, a balanced trade ledger, and a treasury bursting with tariff revenue. But the reality is more complicated.

Contradictions: For tariffs to generate revenue, imports must continue to flow. But if foreign companies fear punishment for selling too much to the U.S., they might move operations to America, which will kill off tariff revenues. OK, maybe you can’t have tariff revenue and new business revenue, but onshoring work will at least create well-paying jobs, right? Maybe not.

When factories relocate from low-wage nations to the US, they cannot afford a significant increase in wages and still maintain a profit. There is, however, a solution. Build hyper-efficient, automated factories in the US. With few or no workers, they may be able to compete.

Trump’s “job-creating” policies may build new factories and even create new billionaires, but high-paying jobs are not going to follow. When Trump tells us that he wants to turn back the clock to when America was great, he forgets that this was also when one out of every three jobs was unionized, paying higher wages and benefits.

Due to actions over the past few decades by both political parties, labor unions are a mere shadow of their former selves. Outside of government employment, only a very few Americans recieve the wages and benefits that were a part of manufacturing work. New car companies like Tesla are strongly opposed to sharing corporate profits with unions; Elon Musk once said that a unionized company is soon a dead company due to union demands. That’s coming from someone who is demanding a $1,000,000,000,000 bonus.

Without the history of high wages and substantial benefits that were once normal for American workers, how will automakers from low-wage markets view new American workers? We already know the answers. Toyota began building cars in the US years ago. While manufacturing wages in Japan tend to be lower than unionized wages in the US, it’s not exactly a low-wage market. Yet, Toyota and other foreign car manufacturers working in the US pay less, offer fewer (if any) benefits, and have troubling safety records. Are these the jobs that will “Make America Great Again”? Or does anyone believe that Trump will demand union representation in every new factory?

Reap What You Sow: Manufacturing can afford to wait years for results; agriculture cannot. Crops don’t care about campaign cycles. As of October 2025, the so-called “Trump Tax” has left many farmers teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

Trump’s logic was simple and outdated. Trump hit China with massive tariffs on soy, corn, and wheat, betting that China had no choice but to buy American. But after his first trade war in 2018, Beijing started shopping elsewhere. When the tariffs (and political insults) returned in 2025, China turned to Argentina for soy and Brazil for corn. Tens of millions of tons of U.S. grain contracts vanished overnight, along with tens of billions of dollars for American farmers.

And then came the kicker: Trump announced a $20 billion farm-aid deal… not for America, but for Argentina. With Trump’s financial lifeline, Argentina’s president was able to eliminate trade taxes and clear the path for Chinese exports. It was a masterstroke… for China. Trump’s largess made America pay for China’s switch to Argentinian grain! And now, Trump says that America needs to double the amount to $40 billion to save Argentina. You can’t get much more tone deaf than that! Or can you?

Despite arguments from every economist in the world, Trump insisted that his Tax would not cause inflation. China rejected Trump’s one-sided tariffs. With most tariffs still not in place, the coming wave of inflation is slowed but still heading towards the US. Trump’s “absolute deadline” of November 1st has passed, just like the last 5 or 6 “absolute deadlines”. Even so, the fear of inflation has been growing. Trump’s solution? Americans should buy more cheap imported beef (from Argentina). Argentina’s cattle ranchers may love this idea, but it’s a lot less popular in Texas. Does MAGA stand for Make Argentina Great Again? Mission accomplished, Mr. President!

US Agriculture’s Future: China has not bought any US corn, wheat, or soy since Trump started a tariff war. Tens of billions of dollars in sales are gone. Crops have been harvested. Instead of being sold, farmers must now pay for long-term storage. If buyers are not found, crops will soon lose value. Eventually, they will rot and be worthless. And that’s not the worst of it.

In 2025, China was able to secure enough grain in South America to meet its needs. Unless Trump backs down on his tariffs and perhaps apologizes to China for starting a trade war, why would China ever buy from the US again?

After President Trump started his first trade war in 2018, China began financing new ports in South America. In 2025, China proved that it could replace grains from the US with grains from other markets. What is China’s incentive to return to U.S. suppliers, especially since Trump keeps making unilateral changes to tariffs?

Did you know that after China, Mexico is the second-largest market for soybeans? By 2026, Mexico… humiliated by Trump’s tariff posturing… could easily join a China-Argentina-Brazil agricultural bloc. If Europe or Canada follows, America’s export market will virtually disappear.

A trade policy built on confrontation, contradictions, and the assumption that the world must play by Washington’s rules may end up doing Beijing’s work for it. We’ll still have an agricultural sector, but it will be smaller, poorer, and far more expensive for consumers.

Paying the Price: Rising prices are already squeezing American households, while farmers face ruin. Trump once promised that “China will pay for the tariffs,” but he is now saying that we need a $10 billion bailout for farmers. A bailout that already needed to happen, but may never arrive, since many USDA workers who process farm loans have either already been fired or are scheduled for termination. And then there’s the government shutdown. It would be difficult to imagine a scenario that could do more damage to US agriculture than how the Trump Tax has played out.

Meanwhile, American manufacturers are voting with their feet. John Deere, the iconic U.S. farm-equipment maker, will shift production to Mexico. Why? US labor shortages (worsened by anti-immigrant policies), soaring costs, and a booming South American market. Deere will not close all US production, just the 50% that is sold in foreign markets. The reciprocal nature of the Trump Tax has changed the economics for John Deere; Mexican-made equipment can now be sold to foreign markets at half price. Yet another economic contradiction of the Trump Tax.

It would be difficult to imagine a scenario that could do more damage to US agriculture than how the Trump Tax has played out. Trump’s trade strategy has managed the remarkable feat of being both protectionist and self-defeating. The “Trump Tax” may be making something great — just not for America.

What do you think? Has Trump improved the US economy with his trade policies, or has he harmed the future of US agriculture and manufacturing? We want to hear your opinions!